There are some different viewpoints on this topic out there. However, the most commonly cited criteria that I have found is simply the game budget:
http://www.gameproducer.net/2009/10/24/what-are-aaa-titles-updated-definition/
http://www.garagegames.com/community/forums/viewthread/124357
I have personally never understood the designation. Being a baseball fan, when I hear the term ‘AAA’ I think of a player that hasn’t made it to the big leagues (and maybe never will). Or, if I think of batteries, I think about how AA batteries are better than AAA batteries.